Decision Mechanics

Insight. Applied.

The Forer effect

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Psychologist Bertram Forer gave 39 of his students a personality test. Each was given a personalised profile based on their answers.

Except they were all given the same profile…taken from an astrology book.

When asked to assess how well it described them, on a 0-5 scale, the students reported an average of 4.3.

Wikipedia describes the Forer effect as

…a common psychological phenomenon whereby individuals give high accuracy ratings to descriptions of their personality that supposedly are tailored specifically to them, yet which are in fact vague and general enough to apply to a wide range of people. This effect can provide a partial explanation for the widespread acceptance of some paranormal beliefs and practices, such as astrology, fortune telling, aura reading, and some types of personality tests.

Faith in technology

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"AI" has been confusing people for over a century.

Nineteenth century British politicians demonstrated a complete lack of understanding of Charles Baggage’s difference engine, leaving him to comment,

On two occasions, I have been asked [by members of Parliament], ‘Pray, Mr. Babbage, if you put into the machine wrong figures, will the right answers come out?’ I am not able to rightly apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke such a question.

I fear people in 2022 have the same blind faith in deep learning models.

Digital transformation

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Digital transformation. Yet another pretentious term that obscures more than it reveals. Every time it’s uttered it’s immediately followed by an attempt at a definition.

My favourite by far is

Unfucking your terrible use of computers.

Unfortunately, I can’t remember the source.

And if thine data offend Excel, change it

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genetic code

I’ve written numerous articles on issues with spreadsheets and why they shouldn’t play any part in a data analytics pipeline. However, trying to persuade people to stop defaulting to Excel is a thankless task.

So, it was no surprise (but very depressing) to read that geneticists changed their naming conventions to prevent Excel mangling their data.

My dismay was alleviated, partially, by a great quote in the article that originally alerted me to this travesty.

[W]e won’t be putting anything into production that relies on data supplied to us as spreadsheets.

The anti-spreadsheet manifesto in a single sentence.

A passion for decision analysis

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When discussing the value we offer to clients, the focus is often on technical aspects—experience, understanding the psychology, skill with tools, processes, etc.

However, it occurs to me that often much of the value we bring to the table is energy and a fresh set of eyes. In many circumstances decision-makers have decision fatigue. It might be due to the number of decisions they have to make, or how long they have spent mulling over this particular decision.

When you are exhausted you make poor decisions.

Engaging the support of a decision scientist gets you someone who isn’t drained. In fact, it gets you someone who is excited about looking at your decision in detail, and from all angles. This work isn’t a burden to the consultant. It’s their job.

No-one likes to admit they are just plain exhausted/exasperated. But you can often see the weight of the world lifting off the shoulders of decision-makers when we come in to help.

Photo by Ian Schneider