Decision Mechanics

Insight. Applied.

A passion for decision analysis

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When discussing the value we offer to clients, the focus is often on technical aspects—experience, understanding the psychology, skill with tools, processes, etc.

However, it occurs to me that often much of the value we bring to the table is energy and a fresh set of eyes. In many circumstances decision-makers have decision fatigue. It might be due to the number of decisions they have to make, or how long they have spent mulling over this particular decision.

When you are exhausted you make poor decisions.

Engaging the support of a decision scientist gets you someone who isn’t drained. In fact, it gets you someone who is excited about looking at your decision in detail, and from all angles. This work isn’t a burden to the consultant. It’s their job.

No-one likes to admit they are just plain exhausted/exasperated. But you can often see the weight of the world lifting off the shoulders of decision-makers when we come in to help.

Photo by Ian Schneider

Decision Machines

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A recent article on the Harvard Business School’s Digital Initiative blog argues that we need to move beyond prediction to create "decision machines".

It is decisions, not predictions, that have consequences.

I couldn’t agree more. However, I’m not sure that the current focus on statistical machine learning is going to lead us there.

Kids learn to make decisions by making decisions

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Alfie Kohn is a critic of education’s fixation (in some countries) on grades and test scores.

In a 2010 article entitled “How to Create Nonreaders” he argued

When parents ask, “What did you do in school today?”, kids often respond, “Nothing.” Howard Gardner pointed out that they’re probably right, because “typically school is done to students.” This sort of enforced passivity is particularly characteristic of classrooms where students are excluded from any role in shaping the curriculum, where they’re on the receiving end of lectures and questions, assignments and assessments. One result is a conspicuous absence of critical, creative thinking—something that (irony alert!) the most controlling teachers are likely to blame on the students themselves, who are said to be irresponsible, unmotivated, apathetic, immature, and so on. But the fact is that kids learn to make good decisions by making decisions, not by following directions.

Learn by doing. It’s as true for decision-making as it is for any challenging task.

Of course, it’s not possible to practice all forms of decision-making just by making the decisions. Some decisions have big, irreversible consequences. This is why modeling and simulation are important tools in the decision-makers arsenal. Michael Schrage’s book, “Serious Play”, describes how we can generate memories of future events (scenarios) to enhance our ability to make decisions in response to complex, fast-moving situations.

Decision-making is a lifelong adventure. Improving it, as with so many skills, shouldn’t stop with school.