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Game theory and the Trump dossier

January 17, 2017 By editor

Security expert Bruce Schneier believes that a game-theoretic assessment of whether to release the Trump dossier supports release—regardless of your political affiliation or whether you believe the contents.

That’s the thing with formal analysis—it clarifies the situation and, sometimes, results in a trivial decision-making process.

Filed Under: Confrontation analysis, Decision science Tagged With: game theory, politics, Trump

Trump and confrontation (analysis)

May 30, 2016 By editor

Donald Trump

The general consensus in the mainstream media seems to be that Trump is irrational…at least that’s how the polite ones put it. However, the provocative positions he takes may draw attention away from a rational campaign strategy.

Take Trump’s famous wall. While Clinton mocks the unrealistic ambition, she doesn’t seem to disagree with the basic premise. Her position is, basically, to build a “less effective” version.

Now, that is almost certainly all that is achievable. But, via his provocative stance, Trump is drawing his opponent into a debate of his creation. Trump then takes a strong ideological position—which Clinton appears to agree with—leaving Clinton to argue logistics.

On this issue Trump and Clinton seem to agree on the idea, but Clinton wants to thrash out the implementation details in front of an easily bored electorate.

confrontation over building a US/Mexico wall

Another area where Trump’s election strategy could be seen as rational is in his evasive and off-the-cuff approach to policy areas where he has yet to stake a claim. This results in either him not showing his hand, or effectively producing random strategies—such as his views on abortion.

confrontation over abortion rights

Unpredictably can be a powerful weapon in negotiations. It hampers your opponent’s attempt to build an effective counter-strategy. The Clinton campaign is likely to have significant prowess in out-planning opponents. By keeping them guessing Trump neutralizes one of their assets.

Policies and campaign strategy are not the same thing. One can be wild while the other is planned and coordinated. Trump might be hoping commentators focus on the former and ignore the latter.

Filed Under: Confrontation analysis Tagged With: Clinton, politcal campaign, Trump

Confrontation between Trump and GOP

May 6, 2016 By editor

I was discussing the chaos within the US Republican party with a colleague today. House Speak Paul Ryan, the highest ranking Republican, says he can’t currently endorse his party’s presumptive presidential nominee—Donald Trump.

Extraordinary!

I built a simple confrontation analysis model of the standoff between Trump and “his” party.

confrontation between the GOP and Donald Trump

It doesn’t look good for the Republican establishment.

Trump faces no dilemmas. He’s not required the backing of the establishment so far and seems to feed off their attacks on him. Sure, their money will be important to his presidential campaign, but will they withhold it and let Hillary romp home—as Trump uses his platform to blame them for her success?

The GOP, in contrast faces two dilemmas. Obviously, they’ll struggle to persuade Trump to adopt their values. He’s been attacking many of them throughout his campaign. Secondly, and possibly more fundamental, they face a self persuasion dilemma. Can a party so divided, with their voters showing strong support for Trump, really withhold endorsements?

Canute holding back the tide comes to mind.

Filed Under: Confrontation analysis Tagged With: GOP, Trump

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