I was discussing the chaos within the US Republican party with a colleague today. House Speak Paul Ryan, the highest ranking Republican, says he can’t currently endorse his party’s presumptive presidential nominee—Donald Trump.
I built a simple confrontation analysis model of the standoff between Trump and “his” party.
It doesn’t look good for the Republican establishment.
Trump faces no dilemmas. He’s not required the backing of the establishment so far and seems to feed off their attacks on him. Sure, their money will be important to his presidential campaign, but will they withhold it and let Hillary romp home—as Trump uses his platform to blame them for her success?
The GOP, in contrast faces two dilemmas. Obviously, they’ll struggle to persuade Trump to adopt their values. He’s been attacking many of them throughout his campaign. Secondly, and possibly more fundamental, they face a self persuasion dilemma. Can a party so divided, with their voters showing strong support for Trump, really withhold endorsements?
Canute holding back the tide comes to mind.