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Game theory and the Trump dossier

January 17, 2017 By editor

Security expert Bruce Schneier believes that a game-theoretic assessment of whether to release the Trump dossier supports release—regardless of your political affiliation or whether you believe the contents.

That’s the thing with formal analysis—it clarifies the situation and, sometimes, results in a trivial decision-making process.

Filed Under: Confrontation analysis, Decision science Tagged With: game theory, politics, Trump

5 Machine Learning Books Worth Reading

January 12, 2017 By editor

Learning Tree published my article on five machine learning books that are worth reading. They stretch from non-technical to university textbook.

The books are

  1. The Master Algorithm
  2. Mastering Machine Learning with R
  3. Machine Learning with Spark
  4. Machine Learning: A Probabilistic Perspective
  5. Superintelligence

Filed Under: Machine learning Tagged With: books

Superconsumers

January 4, 2017 By editor

The Economist’s Schumpeter column recently cautioned that

Research shows that firms ignore passionate consumers at their peril

These “superconsumers” represent 10% of all customers, but are responsible for 30-70% of sales, an even greater share of profits and almost all consumer insights. In addition, they influence their social circle with their unbridled enthusiasm.

The article offers advice to companies wishing to engage with their superconsumers. First, identify them through data analytics—they are easy to find. Second, reward them—e.g. through loyalty programs.

I’ve written previously about companies that focus on their best customers, as opposed to trying to appease unhappy ones. Superconsumer research seems to support such a strategy.

Filed Under: Data analysis, Data science Tagged With: superconsumers

Vote HAL 2030!

December 17, 2016 By editor

robot canvassing for votes

Confused by the rapid evolution of politics in the past year? Well, things might get even wilder if robots get to vote in 2030.

I’d comment, but, in 2030, when this post is dug out of the archives, I don’t want to be pilloried for any anti-machine bigotry. Such views could even be fatal by then.

Filed Under: Artificial intelligence

Is wrong better than nothing?

December 11, 2016 By editor

Last week Italians voted “No” to constitutional reform. The Economist reports that

The 20-point margin of defeat—–60% to 40%—–was almost double what pollsters had foreseen.

Yet again, polling has failed. However, come the French and German elections next year who doubts that we’ll continue to celebrate or denounce each poll result with partisan fervor?

There’s a hunger for this kind of information and consumers will take something over nothing—even if that something isn’t telling them very much.

I recently wrote about how the Idiosyncratic Rater Effect renders a lot of human resource data next to useless—yet organizations continue to collect and act on it.

If we want things to change it seems we can’t just point out that the emperor has no clothes—we have to dress him.

Filed Under: Data science Tagged With: polling

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