I’m always surprised by how much focus is placed on advanced data science techniques when basic statistical concepts are ignored.
Take fixed point estimates. It’s clear that many of the numbers bandied around in organisations have significant levels of uncertainty associated with them. How many of us can hit the cost of a project, or its completion date, on the nail?
However, there’s little appetite for working with probability distributions. Even offering up a range of possible outcomes results in demands for a "clear answer".
In the book Public Policy in an Uncertain World President Lyndon B. Johnson, when presented with a range of values for a forecast, is claimed to have said
Ranges are for cattle. Give me a number.
There’s a lot of low-hanging fruit for companies keen to embrace data science.
