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UK general election predictions

April 30, 2015 By editor

FiveThirtyEight is publishing forecasts for the 2015 UK general election.

The site was founded by Nate Silver who made a name for himself creating models that were successful in forecasting the results of recent US elections.

Current predictions are for even closer parity between the Conservatives and Labour, with the SNP comfortably in third place (but not fully in control of the balance of power).

Filed Under: Data analysis, Decision science

Politicians and statistics

April 29, 2015 By editor

An article in today’s Guardian claims that 220 potential MPs have pledged to attend a workshop on how to interpret statistics in public life. Makes a lot of sense.

Politicians’ misunderstanding of statistics is illustrated by reference to a test conducted by the Royal Statistical Society, reported (article has since been updated) as:

…97 MPs were asked the maths question: “If you spin a coin twice, what is the probability of getting two heads?”

The answer is, of course, 25%. However, only 47% of Conservatives and 77% of Labour MPs got this right. This is despite over three-quarters of Conservatives saying they felt confident dealing with numbers.

However, the source of this information is a BBC article that states:

A total of 97 MPs were asked this probability problem: if you spin a coin twice, what is the probability of getting two heads?

Among Conservative members, 47% gave the wrong answer, which is disappointing enough. But of the 44 Labour MPs who took part, 77% answered incorrectly.

Whoops. Turns out that the Guardian, a left-leaning newspaper, is overstating the statistical prowess of Labour MPs. Clearly just a mistake, but an embarrassing one in an article about interpreting statistical information.

Here’s a screenshot of the original article.

Filed Under: Data analysis

Microsoft hiring R developers

April 24, 2015 By editor

Subsequent to their recent purchase of Revolution Analytics, Mircosoft seem to be expanding their investment in R. They are currently hiring for a new team that, amongst other things, will

further accelerate & scale R analytics workloads by integrating with modern big data processing frameworks.

Filed Under: Data analysis

Emotion analytics

April 24, 2015 By editor

Affectiva have an SDK for smartphones that, via the camera, can determine your emotional state from your facial expression.

A free trial period is available for those who wish to try the SDK for themselves.

Filed Under: Data analysis

Big data helps to prevent students from dropping out of college

April 24, 2015 By editor

Marist College, in Poughkeepsie, NY, is using predictive analytics to determine whether students are likely to drop out of their courses.

The college has developed an early warning system for students attending online and hybrid (traditional lecturing with homework completed online) courses. This system identifies students at risk based on factors such as:

  • reading patterns (clickstream analyses)
  • time spent reading
  • forum participation
  • length of questions/comments
  • time to complete exercises

The system uses the data available to it to keep learning about leading indicators that best determine a student at risk.

When a student is flagged by the system, an alert is sent to the relevant professor who can intervene before it’s too late.

Filed Under: Big data

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