Decision Mechanics

Insight. Applied.

R is fastest growing topic on Stack Overflow

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top Stack Overflow tags from 2008 to 2015

Joshua Kunst has analysed Stack Overflow postings and found that R is currently the fastest growing topic.

Stack Overflow is a question and answer site popular with software developers. Questions are tagged with topics and these topics formed the basis of the analysis.

Kunst used R to perform the analysis and he provides a walk-through—making extensive use of the pipeline operator from the magrittr package to create readable functional code. His post is worth reading if you are familiar with, or are learning, R.

Why Managing Risk with Spreadsheets is Risky

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I’m encouraged by the fact that some organizations I speak to are trying to get their spreadsheet sprawl under control. However, far too many remain ignorant of the risks they are shouldering.

Stratford Dick of Marsh ClearSight recently published an article describing how spreadsheets might be hurting your company. In his article he highlights the following risks.

  • Spreadsheet development is time consuming
  • It’s ridiculously easy to make typos
  • Formatting inconsistencies can lead to misinterpretation of results
  • As spreadsheets are mostly developed by individuals they’re not subject to formal checks and reviews
  • Spreadsheets are rarely subject to version control—and are not really designed to be
  • There is no enterprise-level security when using spreadsheets
  • It can be time-consuming to extract and collate data from different spreadsheet models

Subjectivity in data science

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An article recently published in Nature reinforces the fact that the real challenge in data science is not mastery of the technical tools, but the ability to understand and define the problem.

Researchers posed the question of whether the color of a soccer player’s skin is a factor in how many red cards (serious reprimands) he receives. Seems like a pretty straightforward analysis.

The authors sent a data set to 29 research teams and asked them to answer the question. 20 research teams found there was a difference. Nine said there was no relationship between skin color and number of red cards received. Of the 20 who found a difference, two reported that dark-skinned players were less likely to receive red cards.

So, what explains this wide variation in results? Bias? Incompetence? No. It’s down to things like choice of what data is important, selection of analysis methods, etc.

If you have the resources, it seems like the best thing to do is crowd-source your answers. Have multiple researchers do the analysis, compare/contrast the results, share the insights across the teams, redo the analyses and then accept the majority answer. Of course, if you can only afford to employ one team, you need to be aware that data science isn’t an exact science…

Analyzing an Isle of Man TT legend

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The BBC has an article on using a sensor array to determine what makes 23-time Isle of Man TT winner John McGuinness so quick.

Motorcycle riders have been tackling the 38-mile street circuit for over a hundred years. As it’s run on (closed) public roads, it’s an incredibly dangerous race. Riders average 212kph (132mpg) round the course—often coming within inches of stone walls and buildings.

John McGuinness is one of the most successful riders ever to tackle the course and data analysis company EMC decided to find out why he’s so quick. They fitted 50 sensors to him and the bike—collecting data on speed, acceleration, lean angle, throttle use, braking, body position, heart rate, etc.

One key finding is that he’s as cool as a cucumber, recording a heart rate of a mere 120 beats per minute when travelling at over 300kph on country roads. That lets him conserve energy and concentrate more than less skilled riders.

Applying machine learning techniques to the data revealed that only 14 variables were influential in his performance. McGuinness was just a little bit better in most areas than other riders, but each of these small advantages added up to a significant difference in lap times.