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New machine learning podcast

January 13, 2015 By editor

talking machines banner

Talking Machines is a new machine learning podcast hosted by journalist Katherine Gorman and Havard computer science professor Ryan Adams. It’s described as:

[…] your window into the world of machine learning. Your hosts […] bring you clear conversations with experts in the field, insightful discussions of industry news, and useful answers to your questions. Machine learning is changing the questions we can ask of the world around us, here we explore how to ask the best questions and what to do with the answers.

The first episode lays the ground for what will follow in the remainder of the season.

Filed Under: Decision science Tagged With: podcast

R package for electricity forecasting released

January 13, 2015 By editor

pylon

Rob Hyndman and Shu Fan have released an R package for electricity demand forecasting. It’s based on their paper “Density forecasting for long-term peak electricity demand”, published in 2010.

From the project’s Github page:

The package requires the following data as input:
– half-hourly/hourly electricity demands
– half-hourly/hourly temperatures at one or two locations
– seasonal demographical and economical data
– public holiday data

The formats of the required data are described in the help files.

Filed Under: Decision science Tagged With: forecasting

The hidden cost of settings

January 12, 2015 By editor

space shuttle cockpit

I was chatting to Sean Brady of Prism Decision Systems last week. He was using the Modern UI version of Skype on his new laptop and bemoaning the fact that software can be too minimalist.

There’s a recent trend for software to have minimal options. Design decisions are made for the users by the developers. iA Writer, a word processing application, typifies the genre. It famously doesn’t allow users to change font type, size or color—you just sit down and get on with it. Contrast this with Microsoft Word which has more options than Macy’s lipstick counter.

Software that minimizes the options available to the user is called “opinionated”. Options that, in the opinion of the developers, don’t add much value to the user experience, should be removed. In fact, some options can actually degrade the user experience—many a Powerpoint author would have done well to stick with the default options.

Does the average Word user really need dozens of fonts? Can any mortal use more that 10% of the features of Adobe Photoshop? What value is there in changing how your tabs look in Internet Explorer?

Research has show that too much choice can be a bad thing. Choosers become overwhelmed by choice paralysis. Don’t try and pretend that you’ve not whiled away many a corporate hour endlessly tweaking a presentation slide, unsure of what looks best.

But, how can more options be a bad thing? What if we hide them away behind a single “Settings” button nestled in the corner? Then the majority of users can have simplicity while the power-users tweak the shading on the scrollbars.

One of the problems is that these options add complexity. They bloat the software. Each addition is a potential source of bugs and, as the application is extended—or even redeveloped—these options begin to weigh down progress. There’s a finite amount of time available for design and implementation. If some of this is being squandered on options of questionable utility, it’s taking time from core innovation.

There also the problem that the developers themselves lose their way. Options are generally added to placate a user. Rather than spend time thinking about the value of a request, and explaining to a passionate user why it won’t be implemented, developers often take the cowardly step of adding it in as an option. Effectively this is saying, “I’m not sure if it’s valuable, but we’ll just give you the option to do it as that’s less confrontational.”

As a developer, if you do that enough, you begin to lose the vision you had for your product. It stops being a handcrafted work of art and becomes a consensus-ridden community product. Believe me. You really don’t want developers to lose their passion for your favorite app.

The danger is to think of opinionated software as mininalist. It’s focused. Just complicated enough to do the job you need done—and no less. I often remind my clients that what they really want is a big green button that they press and out pops the answer. The design question is how close we can get to that. They rarely need an elaborate chart—they need conclusions drawn from that chart. They rarely need a sortable, pageable grid—they need a “suggest-as-I-type” search box that pinpoints the records they are hunting for. Opinionated software melts into the background while you get on with the task.

One of the benefits of the explosion in low-cost, simple apps is that you can find one that the perfect fit for you. No longer do we all have to use the same behemoth applications and tweak their edges to find some personality.

And, if all else fails, in this age of the citizen programmer, if you can’t find the app you want, build you own.

Filed Under: Software Tagged With: UX

Death by conservation

January 12, 2015 By editor

elephants

An article in last week’s New Scientist reports that conservation policies are driving villagers to kill protected wildlife—including elephants and tigers.

Government conservation policies restrict use of ancestral lands which causes resentment among villagers. In some cases this resentment manifests itself in the illegal killing of the very animals that the policies are designed to protect.

Unintended consequences.

The problem is that the policies are created without the involvement of the villagers. Stakeholders, such as the villagers, are not “background data”. They are active participants—and they will react to changes in a situation.

Any solution to a problem that involves multiple stakeholders (…pretty much any problem…) must consider reactions…reactions to reactions…and so on….as an integral part of the analysis. Tools such as game theory and confrontation analysis are designed to explicitly address these reactions and, as such, are essential to any serious attempt at decision modeling.

Filed Under: Confrontation analysis Tagged With: game theory

Computer says, “No.” (to snacks)

January 9, 2015 By editor

Big data creates opportunities for all sorts of new services—good, bad or just wacky.

It’s difficult to be sure which category the Luce X2 TouchTV from Rhea Vendors falls under.

They have a snack-vending machine that could, in principle, access your medical records via facial recognition. Cross-referencing this with your purchase history would determine if you’d been naughty and, if so, no treat would be vended.

Of course, a passing healthy-looking student would always be happy to help you stick it to the man. But do you really want a vending machine vetoing your lunch?

Seriously, though, the increasing availability of data is going to present us with all manner of vexing opportunities. And the technology is moving faster than our understanding of the consequences.

Filed Under: Big data

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